Should You Buy in East Toronto Before the New Year, or Wait for Spring?

Most buyers in East Toronto are asking a two-option question right now. Buy something before the holidays, or wait for the spring market and its wider selection.

The numbers point somewhere else.

This piece works from 45 consecutive TRREB Market Watch reports, January 2023 through September 2026, covering the Toronto East catchment. Three full winters of it. Read that way, the choice isn't December against April. It's January against both of them, and January wins on grounds nobody really talks about.

If you're on the other side of this decision and wondering whether to list now or hold until spring, the same dataset answers that question too, and the answer runs differently: list before the holidays or wait for spring 2027.

Is it cheaper to buy a house in East Toronto before the holidays?

Modestly, yes. Buyers in the Toronto East catchment paid between 99% and 101% of the asking price in each of the last three Decembers. In two of those three years, the average home sold for less than its list price. By the following April, every single year, the average home sold for more.

Here is the comparison, December against the April that followed it:

Two things move together there. Price discipline and time.

The sale-to-list figure is the one buyers notice, because it's the difference between writing an offer under asking and writing one over it. The days-on-market figure matters more in practice. A listing that has sat for 36 days has a seller who has already watched a month go by. That seller takes a conditional offer seriously. The same house in April, three weeks on the market and drawing weekend traffic, does not.

Why is there so much less to choose from in December?

Because new listings in December run at roughly a quarter to a third of April's volume. East Toronto sellers mostly don't launch a listing into the holidays, so the board thins out hard. This is the real cost of buying in the off-season, and it's a bigger number than the price advantage.

The three years line up like this:

• December 2023: 364 new listings. April 2024: 1,238. Three and a half times as many.
• December 2024: 393 new listings. April 2025: 1,590. Four times as many.
• December 2025: 414 new listings. April 2026: 1,346. Three and a quarter times as many.

That gap changes what a search actually feels like. If you're looking in Leslieville or Riverdale in December, where the housing stock is already specific and the inventory is already tight, a quarter of the usual listing flow can mean two or three genuine candidates in a month instead of ten. Wider areas like East York absorb the drop better. The Beaches and Danforth and Greektown sit in between.

So December hands you better terms on a shorter list. Whether that trade works depends entirely on how particular you are about what you're buying.

What is the best month to buy a house in East Toronto?

January. In 2024, 2025 and 2026 alike, it held December's pricing almost exactly, it posted the slowest days-on-market of any month in the whole four-year dataset, and it carried close to double December's new listings. Buyers get the off-season negotiating position without the off-season shortage.

Look at the days-on-market column against everything else in this post. Those three numbers, 33 and 35 and 39, are the highest of any month in the series. January is the slowest month East Toronto has. Not December, which people assume, and not February.

The reason is a timing mismatch, and it's worth understanding because it's what makes the window real. Sellers come back first. A seller who decided in November to wait until after the holidays lists in the first two weeks of January, which is why new listings roughly double off their December floor. Buyers come back later, generally once the spring narrative kicks in around late February. For a few weeks in between, new inventory is arriving into a market where the competition has not shown up yet.

That is the whole opportunity, and it is narrower than you would expect. The window doesn't erode gradually through spring. It shuts in February.

By February 2025 the sale-to-list ratio had already reached 104%, which is exactly where April 2025 landed. February 2026 hit 102%, again matching that April. Days on market fall just as fast: 35 days in January 2025 down to 22 in February, and 39 down to 29 across the same weeks of 2026. Whatever advantage January carries is mostly gone within four to six weeks. Buyers coming back is what closes it.

One practical note. Moving quickly in a slow month is not the same thing as moving carelessly. A house that has been sitting since October has usually been sitting for a reason, and the reason is sometimes the roof. What a home inspection actually catches covers the due diligence that matters most when a listing has aged.

Is the off-season buying advantage shrinking in East Toronto?

It is, and anyone making this decision should know it. The spring peak has come down every year measured, and the December-to-April gap has narrowed from seven percentage points to three. The off-season edge is real. It is also smaller than it was, and it has gotten smaller each year.

The April sale-to-list figure went 109% in 2023, 106% in 2024, 104% in 2025, and 102% in 2026. Spring is losing its heat. Winter has not gained anything.

Underneath it, the whole market has been slowing regardless of season. Average days on market across all twelve months ran 17.7 in 2023, 22.2 in 2024, and 26.1 in 2025. Through the first nine months of 2026 it sits at 27.9.

Which produces an honest and slightly awkward conclusion. A buyer who timed the off-season well in 2023 picked up about seven points off asking and faced a market where listings moved eleven days faster come April. This year that same gap is worth roughly three points and ten days. Buying in the slow season still means fewer competing offers and more room to negotiate. It no longer means the discount it meant three years ago, and if the trend holds, next winter's window is narrower still.

The flip side is more useful than it first looks. East Toronto in 2026 is a more patient market in every month than it was in 2023. The seasonal edge is shrinking partly because the year-round conditions have improved for buyers. You need the calendar less than you used to.

Are home prices actually higher in spring than in winter?

Average sale prices do run higher. Comparing each November and December against the January through April that followed, the average rose by $38,100, then $41,200, then $27,900. That number does not mean what it looks like, though, and it's worth a minute.

Average price measures whatever happened to sell that month. It does not track a specific house. Spring brings out a different and generally more expensive mix of inventory: the detached family homes with finished basements, the properties where sellers waited for good light and a green lawn before photographing. December sells a thinner and cheaper slice of the market.

So a good chunk of that $28,000 to $41,000 spread is the mix shifting rather than the same house costing more because you waited. Treat it as a description of what trades in each season. It is not a discount you can bank by signing in December.

The sale-to-list ratio is the better number for a buyer, which is why it carries most of the argument above. It compares each house to its own asking price, so the mix cannot distort it.

Should you wait for spring 2027 to buy in East Toronto?

Based on where the market sits this fall, there's no strong case either way. Nothing in the recent data suggests a price run coming that would punish a buyer for waiting a few weeks, and nothing suggests a drop worth holding out for. Conditions have been easing gradually through the back half of 2026.

The last four reported months, Toronto East:

September closed at an average price of $956,004 and a median of $880,000, with 1,984 active listings. Compare that to the same month three years earlier: September 2023 had 1,332 active listings and sold 440 homes, against September 2026's 481. Roughly half again as much standing inventory, selling at about the same pace, and listings taking 29 days instead of 18.

That's the actual answer to the timing question. The seasonal pattern is a few points at the margin. The market has already moved further in buyers' favour than any single month's seasonality is going to.

What should decide this is whether your financing is sorted, not what the calendar says. A buyer who is approved and clear on a number is in a position to use a slow January. A buyer still working out what they qualify for is not, and three points off asking is no help to them in the meantime. Mortgage basics for first-time buyers in East Toronto covers that groundwork.

Common questions

Is it cheaper to buy a house in East Toronto in December?

Modestly. Buyers paid 99% to 101% of asking across the last three Decembers, and in two of those three years the average home sold below its list price. The catch is selection: December new listings run at roughly a quarter to a third of April's volume, so the better terms come on a much shorter list of homes.

What is the best month to buy a house in East Toronto?

January, based on four years of TRREB data. It holds December's pricing at 100% to 102% of asking, posts the slowest days-on-market of any month in the series at 33 to 39 days, and carries close to double December's new listings. Sellers return in early January; buyers return weeks later.

Do house prices drop in winter in East Toronto?

Average sale prices are lower in winter, but that mostly reflects a cheaper mix of homes trading, not a discount on a comparable property. The more useful measure is sale-to-list ratio, which compares each home against its own asking price. That one does show a winter advantage, worth about three percentage points right now.

How long are homes sitting on the market in East Toronto?

Listings averaged 29 days in September 2026, against a 17.7-day average across all of 2023. Days on market have risen every year since. For a buyer, a longer average means more negotiating room and less pressure to waive conditions, and it applies in every month now, not only the winter ones.

Should I wait until spring 2027 to buy in East Toronto?

There's no strong argument for waiting or for rushing. The seasonal edge is real but has narrowed from seven percentage points in 2023 to about three. Meanwhile year-round conditions have shifted toward buyers: September 2026 carried 1,984 active listings against 1,332 in September 2023, with homes taking 29 days to sell instead of 18. Readiness matters more than the month.

Where that leaves you

The short version. December gets you the best terms and the worst selection. April gets you the best selection and the worst terms. January gets you most of December's terms with twice its inventory, which is why it's the window worth planning around if you have the flexibility to use it.

None of that is worth much if the financing isn't settled, and all of it matters less than it did three years ago, because the market has moved in buyers' favour in every month.

If you're buying to rent out rather than to live in, the timing question has a second half to it, which is who ends up in the unit. Tenant screening for East Toronto landlords covers the part that costs the most to get wrong.

So the real question isn't which month. It's whether you're ready to move when something right shows up in a quiet week. Ed works through exactly that question, neighbourhood by neighbourhood, in a 15-minute call. No prep needed.

Book a 15-minute consultation